If the he old adage “for the stock market to rise it must crawl a wall of worry” is true then 2019 will provide a staircase to 26,000. Unless these “worries” turn into genuine problems then these steps could quickly turn into hurdles, some of them several feet high making for a very turbulent and possibly negative market return for the year. Some of these steps on the wall include a tariff war that will not easily be resolved, a perpetual investigation into potential Administrative collusions with Russia or potentially much more, and corporate earnings that have guided down for many reasons ranging from the government shutdown to the polar vortex. Any of which could amount to more than just slowing down the market but completely grinding it to a halt so in a pre-election year look for this year to more of an individual market of stocks rather than a stock market and to be clear, there’s a difference.

The first big step of the self-imposed trade war may the be biggest stumbling block of all as there may not be quantifiable solution that could be agreed upon. For example, if the US claims that China is stealing trade secrets and China says there not, what kind of agreement could you reach? “ok, we agree to stop doing what we weren’t doing begin with so now can you lift the 25% tariff?” This is one of many clouds that hangs over the market going into the first quarter. Mostly because of the hard line stance taken there may not be an easy way to back down or back out without losing political face, but what is certain is that several companies in multiple industries are verifying that the trade war is hurting both business and earnings.