Making a case for the Rams – They are 5-1 in games where both teams score 30 or more points, their only loss coming against the Saints in week 9 when they were undefeated. They are averaging 193 yards rushing in their last 4 games which would mean keeping Tom Brady off the field. Perhaps most importantly the Ram defense over the course of the season has hit the opposing quarterback over 100 times this season. Everyone that watches the NFL knows ‘Tom Terrific’ hates to be touched let alone knocked down or sacked. By the way the last two teams to tally that many QB hits in a season? The Giants of 2009 and the Eagles of 2017, both defeated the Patriots in their respective Super Bowls. The Rams also have a strong offensive line that will give Goff time to pass, making them a true duel threat offense capable of putting big numbers on the scoreboard, please refer again to point 1. Wade Phillips’ coached defenses have fared well against Brady in the post season deflating his TD/Int ratio to 6 to 5. The Biggest question in the Rams camp is the health of Todd Gurley. If he the world knew for a fact that he was healthy the line would have never moved from Rams -1.
Making a case for the Patriots – For the first time in the last decade of dominance this is the first time the Patriots are coming into the Super Bowl playing their best football of the season. Even in the undefeated season 07’ they looked like they were fading down the stretch pulling out games in the final possession against the Ravens and Giants. Then hardly looking dominant against the Jaguars and Chargers at home in the playoffs ahead of the Super Bowl, which they lost. This year they have looked like different team in the playoffs. Although favorites against the Chargers, many pundits had them losing when in fact it was their most dominating performance of the year. Then they were actually underdogs against the Chiefs, and looked impressive jumping out to an early lead 14-0 and almost leading the entire game until getting caught in the 4th quarter. The Patriot offensive line has been fantastic giving Brady time, the Pats have thrown for over 300 yards in 9 of their last 11 games and history has proven if you can’t get to Brady then you can’t beat New England. Lastly, and this may be redundant at this point but you simply can not over look the gargantuan advantage in experience. Brady has more wins (29 to 26), Passing TDs (73-67), and Passing Yards (10.9k to 10.3k) in the PLAYOFFS than Geoff has in his entire career. That means something, regardless of how many times you’ve heard it.
Our Pick? I’ve watched these teams all year, and have been covering sports since 2003. As much as I take into account all of the quantitative data, when the game is supposed to be close, and this one will be, I always fall back to the “eye test”, and over the last 4 games and 6 weeks the Patriots have simply played better and seemed to be peaking at the right time. While the Rams are better on paper, I seem to remember a script very similar to this. It was exactly 19 years to the day when a vastly inferior Patriots team upset a 12-point favored Ram team. History repeats itself Sunday, but no last second field goal, the Rams get a late score to make it respectable. Patriots 31 – 27.